Recently, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have directly impacted the global air cargo market. On the one hand, international oil prices have risen sharply, leading to a rapid increase in aviation fuel costs. Industry consensus holds that aviation fuel typically accounts for more than 30% of airlines’ total operating costs, and this cost pressure has been rapidly amplified amid the sharp fluctuations in oil prices.

To hedge against cost risks, numerous airlines worldwide have successively raised fuel surcharges, driving up the overall level of air freight rates.

On the other hand, and more critically, there has been a sharp contraction in capacity. Affected by airspace restrictions and security risks, a large number of cargo flights on Middle East routes have been forced to cancel or reroute, resulting in a significant reduction in capacity supply. Coupled with extended flight distances and reduced payloads caused by diversions, this has further squeezed available capacity and driven freight rates continuously higher.

Compared with rising prices, a more intractable problem facing the market is the lack of available cargo space.

Many industry insiders note that the Middle East air cargo market has shifted from a “pricing issue” to a “capacity issue”.

Frequent flight cancellations and highly unstable schedules have become the new norm in the industry.

The most severely affected are the key aviation hubs in the Middle East. Operational disruptions at traditional transit centers such as Dubai and Doha have impacted more than 10% of the global air cargo capacity.

Meanwhile, to avoid risks, most airlines have opted for alternative routes, increasing flight times by 1 to 3 hours. This has not only raised fuel consumption but also reduced cargo loading efficiency.